Calm before the storm - when do we start seeing the volatility?
There has been a number of market moving news in the last week or so. Yet, the markets have been benign and fairly calm. The big news that awaits the markets now is on how the debt ceiling gets resolved...
Running on fumes - how long can we go before we hit recession?
It has been quite a month! FED very successfully dodged the banking crisis and got away with raising rates one more time. The market thinks they are likely to raise once more...
Late Cycle Blues - this is the gist of the current state of markets.
We have witnessed the fastest rate hikes in the last half a century. As has always been the case, these rate hikes precipitate certain events that shine the light on deep cracks in the financial systems...
There has been a flurry of data updates and changes in January that are very much in contrast with the trajectory we have been on for the few months prior. We are seeing a bounce in most of the economic data, bond yields and most surely in equity prices. While this may all seem like good news, perhaps the apt metaphor to describe this could be the following...
A few things are less fun than seeing paint dry. The economic update since the last month belongs to this category...
FED appears to have peaked in their hawkishness...
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