Assessing the Economic Landscape: Inflation, Growth, and Market Sentiment
Inflation has come in hotter than expected over the past 3 months putting a dent in the thesis of soft landing. It looks like the flight is ...
Economy Stays Strong, Market at New Highs
The economy seems to be firing on all cylinders. The manufacturing index is expanding, job numbers are looking better, energy prices have increased....
Current Economic Dynamics: An Optimism for Growth
2024 has ushered in a new and robust sense of optimism.
The economy seems to be firing on all cylinders. The Manufacturing PMI has turned the corner and is expanding first time since September 2022...
Navigating Economic Signals and Market Projections in 2024
The current economic indicators show minimal changes over the past month.
Projections from Nowcast and Blue Chip consensus suggest positive GDP growth...
Market Dynamics: Attaining the Soft Landing, Euphoria, and Emerging Concerns
As the main highlight for this month, the Federal Reserve expressed confidence in achieving a soft landing, leading to a significant rally in various risk assets. The 10-year yield continued its descent and the broadening market rally of November got another boost...
December Deliberations: Markets Rally Amid Economic Slowdown and FED's Soft Landing
The main highlight for this month has been the surprise miss in payroll number, miss in the inflation numbers and the related move lower in 10-year Treasuries! All these, interestingly has led a rally in the equity and bond markets for now...
Cautious Optimism Amidst Rising Long-Term Yields and Economic Signals
The main highlight of this month has been the noticeable increase in long-term yield curve rates, which have surged by approximately 50 basis points in recent weeks...
Goldilocks Economy is Ephemeral
Freshly made hot porridge is at just the right temperature only for a short while as it cools down. Similarly, economy remains in the goldilocks zone as it goes from expansion to contraction for just a short period of time. Enjoy while it lasts...
Divergence in Indicators evokes Patience and Caution
A decision is made easy when all the data points in one direction. This month has been a case where the data is in stark disagreement with this idea. While the Conference Board's LEI indicates a possible recession being imminent, the Atlanta GDP Nowcast leads us to expect a hot economy growing at close to 6%...
It is time to be data dependent again!
The data shows that manufacturing and industrial production are slowing while the services sector looks pretty robust. Manufacturing employment is about 13% of non-farm payrolls and manufacturing accounts for less than 15% of GDP. Services are the larger part (about 72% of non-farm payrolls and 70% of GDP). In the late stage of the business cycle...
Potential storms averted but does the course look clear?
The conclusion of the debt ceiling debate has cleared out the storm clouds over the markets. Since then, in June, we have seen the markets rally considerably. Not just the top 7 tech stocks, but broadly every sector has seen the benefits. Additionally, the recent inflation data along with FED's pause in interest rate hikes has calmed investor nerves. The money that was parked in money market accounts before the debt ceiling is making its way into the stock market...
Calm before the storm - when do we start seeing the volatility?
There has been a number of market moving news in the last week or so. Yet, the markets have been benign and fairly calm. The big news that awaits the markets now is on how the debt ceiling gets resolved...
Running on fumes - how long can we go before we hit recession?
It has been quite a month! FED very successfully dodged the banking crisis and got away with raising rates one more time. The market thinks they are likely to raise once more...
Late Cycle Blues - this is the gist of the current state of markets.
We have witnessed the fastest rate hikes in the last half a century. As has always been the case, these rate hikes precipitate certain events that shine the light on deep cracks in the financial systems...
There has been a flurry of data updates and changes in January that are very much in contrast with the trajectory we have been on for the few months prior. We are seeing a bounce in most of the economic data, bond yields and most surely in equity prices. While this may all seem like good news, perhaps the apt metaphor to describe this could be the following...
A few things are less fun than seeing paint dry. The economic update since the last month belongs to this category...
FED appears to have peaked in their hawkishness...
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