Economic Update for July 2024

Market Dynamics Shift Amid Softer Inflation and Economic Cooling

The big news for this month is the softer inflation print and the subsequent and violent rotation trade in equity markets...

Economic Update for June 2024

Economic Optimism and Tech Sector Momentum Drive Market Rally

The technology generals are still on a tear, melting upwards. Recent earnings reports from NVDA, as well as a softer inflation report, have fueled this rally...

Economic Update for May 2024

Market Update: Inflation Fears Ease, Earnings Remain Strong, and Sector Rotation in Utilities

The inflation and stagflation scare has abated, and the markets are resuming their upwards trend...

Economic Update for April 2024

Assessing the Economic Landscape: Inflation, Growth, and Market Sentiment

Inflation has come in hotter than expected over the past 3 months putting a dent in the thesis of soft landing. It looks like the flight is ...

Economic Update for March 2024

Economy Stays Strong, Market at New Highs

The economy seems to be firing on all cylinders. The manufacturing index is expanding, job numbers are looking better, energy prices have increased....

Economic Update for February 2024

Current Economic Dynamics: An Optimism for Growth

2024 has ushered in a new and robust sense of optimism.

The economy seems to be firing on all cylinders. The Manufacturing PMI has turned the corner and is expanding first time since September 2022...

Economic Update for January 2024

Navigating Economic Signals and Market Projections in 2024

The current economic indicators show minimal changes over the past month.

Projections from Nowcast and Blue Chip consensus suggest positive GDP growth...

Economic Update for December 2023

Market Dynamics: Attaining the Soft Landing, Euphoria, and Emerging Concerns

As the main highlight for this month, the Federal Reserve expressed confidence in achieving a soft landing, leading to a significant rally in various risk assets. The 10-year yield continued its descent and the broadening market rally of November got another boost...

Economic Update for November 2023

December Deliberations: Markets Rally Amid Economic Slowdown and FED's Soft Landing

The main highlight for this month has been the surprise miss in payroll number, miss in the inflation numbers and the related move lower in 10-year Treasuries! All these, interestingly has led a rally in the equity and bond markets for now...

Economic Update for October 2023

Cautious Optimism Amidst Rising Long-Term Yields and Economic Signals

The main highlight of this month has been the noticeable increase in long-term yield curve rates, which have surged by approximately 50 basis points in recent weeks...

Economic Update for September 2023

Goldilocks Economy is Ephemeral

Freshly made hot porridge is at just the right temperature only for a short while as it cools down. Similarly, economy remains in the goldilocks zone as it goes from expansion to contraction for just a short period of time. Enjoy while it lasts...

Economic Update for August 2023

Divergence in Indicators evokes Patience and Caution

A decision is made easy when all the data points in one direction. This month has been a case where the data is in stark disagreement with this idea. While the Conference Board's LEI indicates a possible recession being imminent, the Atlanta GDP Nowcast leads us to expect a hot economy growing at close to 6%...

Economic Update for July 2023

It is time to be data dependent again!

The data shows that manufacturing and industrial production are slowing while the services sector looks pretty robust. Manufacturing employment is about 13% of non-farm payrolls and manufacturing accounts for less than 15% of GDP. Services are the larger part (about 72% of non-farm payrolls and 70% of GDP). In the late stage of the business cycle...

Economic Update for June 2023

Potential storms averted but does the course look clear?

The conclusion of the debt ceiling debate has cleared out the storm clouds over the markets. Since then, in June, we have seen the markets rally considerably. Not just the top 7 tech stocks, but broadly every sector has seen the benefits. Additionally, the recent inflation data along with FED's pause in interest rate hikes has calmed investor nerves. The money that was parked in money market accounts before the debt ceiling is making its way into the stock market...

Economic Update for May 2023

Calm before the storm - when do we start seeing the volatility?

There has been a number of market moving news in the last week or so. Yet, the markets have been benign and fairly calm. The big news that awaits the markets now is on how the debt ceiling gets resolved...

Economic Update for April 2023

Running on fumes - how long can we go before we hit recession?

It has been quite a month! FED very successfully dodged the banking crisis and got away with raising rates one more time. The market thinks they are likely to raise once more...

Economic Update for March 2023

Late Cycle Blues - this is the gist of the current state of markets.

We have witnessed the fastest rate hikes in the last half a century. As has always been the case, these rate hikes precipitate certain events that shine the light on deep cracks in the financial systems...

Economic Update for February 2023

There has been a flurry of data updates and changes in January that are very much in contrast with the trajectory we have been on for the few months prior. We are seeing a bounce in most of the economic data, bond yields and most surely in equity prices. While this may all seem like good news, perhaps the apt metaphor to describe this could be the following...

Economic Update for January 2023

A few things are less fun than seeing paint dry. The economic update since the last month belongs to this category...

Economic Update for December 2022

FED appears to have peaked in their hawkishness...

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