Goldilocks Economy is Ephemeral
Freshly made hot porridge is at just the right temperature only for a short while as it cools down. Similarly, economy remains in the goldilocks zone as it goes from expansion to contraction for just a short period of time. Enjoy while it lasts...
Divergence in Indicators evokes Patience and Caution
A decision is made easy when all the data points in one direction. This month has been a case where the data is in stark disagreement with this idea. While the Conference Board's LEI indicates a possible recession being imminent, the Atlanta GDP Nowcast leads us to expect a hot economy growing at close to 6%...
It is time to be data dependent again!
The data shows that manufacturing and industrial production are slowing while the services sector looks pretty robust. Manufacturing employment is about 13% of non-farm payrolls and manufacturing accounts for less than 15% of GDP. Services are the larger part (about 72% of non-farm payrolls and 70% of GDP). In the late stage of the business cycle...
Potential storms averted but does the course look clear?
The conclusion of the debt ceiling debate has cleared out the storm clouds over the markets. Since then, in June, we have seen the markets rally considerably. Not just the top 7 tech stocks, but broadly every sector has seen the benefits. Additionally, the recent inflation data along with FED's pause in interest rate hikes has calmed investor nerves. The money that was parked in money market accounts before the debt ceiling is making its way into the stock market...
Calm before the storm - when do we start seeing the volatility?
There has been a number of market moving news in the last week or so. Yet, the markets have been benign and fairly calm. The big news that awaits the markets now is on how the debt ceiling gets resolved...
Running on fumes - how long can we go before we hit recession?
It has been quite a month! FED very successfully dodged the banking crisis and got away with raising rates one more time. The market thinks they are likely to raise once more...
Late Cycle Blues - this is the gist of the current state of markets.
We have witnessed the fastest rate hikes in the last half a century. As has always been the case, these rate hikes precipitate certain events that shine the light on deep cracks in the financial systems...
There has been a flurry of data updates and changes in January that are very much in contrast with the trajectory we have been on for the few months prior. We are seeing a bounce in most of the economic data, bond yields and most surely in equity prices. While this may all seem like good news, perhaps the apt metaphor to describe this could be the following...
A few things are less fun than seeing paint dry. The economic update since the last month belongs to this category...
FED appears to have peaked in their hawkishness...
© Copyright Trillium Square Advisors LLC 2023.
Trillium Square Advisors LLC,
423 Peaslake Ct, Rolesville NC - 27571
Trillium Square Advisors LLC,
2840 Plaza Place, Suite 210, Raleigh, NC - 27612
All written content on this site is for information purposes only. Opinions expressed herein are solely those of Trillium Square Advisors LLC unless otherwise specifically cited. Material presented is believed to be from reliable sources and no representations are made by our firm as to another parties’ informational accuracy or completeness. All information or ideas provided should be discussed in detail with an advisor, accountant or legal counsel prior to implementation.
This website may provide links to others for the convenience of our users. Our firm has no control over the accuracy or content of these other websites.
Advisory services are offered through Trillium Square Advisors LLC; an investment advisor firm domiciled in the State of North Carolina. The presence of this website on the Internet shall not be directly or indirectly interpreted as a solicitation of investment advisory services to persons of another jurisdiction unless otherwise permitted by statute.
Follow-up or individualized responses to consumers in a particular state by our firm in the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation shall not be made without our first complying with jurisdiction requirements or pursuant to an applicable state exemption.
For information concerning the status or disciplinary history of a broker-dealer, investment advisor, or their representatives, a consumer should contact their state securities administrator.
